2. 2B Pedroia
3. LF Crawford
4. 3B Youkilis
5. 1B Gonzalez
6. DH Ortiz
7. RF Cameron
8. C Saltalamacchia
9. SS Scutaro
P Lester
Take a good look at it. Revel in it's glory. Remember this feeling and savor it. Expectations for that lineup are as high as an elephant's eye and pretty much everybody who's ever written anything about baseball has picked the Red Sox to win the East, the AL, the World Series, the World Baseball Classic, the Futures Game, and the MTV Rock N Jock Softball challenge.
That being said, amidst all of the otherworldly predictions and projections this team might not be as bulletproof as everyone thinks.
For all of the ballyhooed free agent signings and trades that took place this offseason, there were a couple of things that did not change. Their names are Josh Beckett, Jon Lackey, and Jonathan Papelbon. Those three arms are expected to equal a significant portion of Red Sox innings pitched this season and frankly there is no real reason to expect drastic improvements.
Baseball Prospectus disagrees with me, however, as they have both Beckett, Lackey, and Papelbon bouncing back this season. BP also is predicting a regression from Clay Bucchholz and an increase in both ERA and WHIP from Jon Lester, not to mention 7 less wins for Lester than last season.
Now, of course the Cleveland Indians would love to have a problem like "Who to hit 3rd in the lineup, Kevin Youkilis or Carl Crawford" and if this is a problem there really isn't a problem but there is going to be a lot of pressure on the Sox this year, like there is with any team that gets universally predicted to breeze through a grueling professional athletic season. There will be hiccups, there will be slumps. There will be poor pitching performances, there will be blown saves, and there will be costly errors.
That being said, here is my predicted final standings for the 2011 AL East:
Boston 151-11
Tampa 82-80
Toronto 75-87
Baltimore 66-96
New York 25-137
Play Ball.
-Judge
3. LF Crawford
4. 3B Youkilis
5. 1B Gonzalez
6. DH Ortiz
7. RF Cameron
8. C Saltalamacchia
9. SS Scutaro
P Lester
Take a good look at it. Revel in it's glory. Remember this feeling and savor it. Expectations for that lineup are as high as an elephant's eye and pretty much everybody who's ever written anything about baseball has picked the Red Sox to win the East, the AL, the World Series, the World Baseball Classic, the Futures Game, and the MTV Rock N Jock Softball challenge.
That being said, amidst all of the otherworldly predictions and projections this team might not be as bulletproof as everyone thinks.
For all of the ballyhooed free agent signings and trades that took place this offseason, there were a couple of things that did not change. Their names are Josh Beckett, Jon Lackey, and Jonathan Papelbon. Those three arms are expected to equal a significant portion of Red Sox innings pitched this season and frankly there is no real reason to expect drastic improvements.
Baseball Prospectus disagrees with me, however, as they have both Beckett, Lackey, and Papelbon bouncing back this season. BP also is predicting a regression from Clay Bucchholz and an increase in both ERA and WHIP from Jon Lester, not to mention 7 less wins for Lester than last season.
I'm not too worried about the pitching, though, because I feel like even if the bottom of the rotation doesn't impress the top still makes them a top 5 rotation in the majors. There is not much to bellyache about in the lineup either, although I cannot quite wrap my head around Crawford in the 3 spot all season long.
In theory, he's a great #3 hitter because a.) he's a fine hitter in his own right and b.) he sets the table for the ensuing pitcher's nightmare of Youkilis, Gonzalez, and Ortiz but I don't know. I'm of the belief that Gonzalez is going to settle into the cleanup spot with relative ease and will likely have sewn it up by mid-May. There's just something about bringing in two new guys to hit in the Giant Glass sponsored GIANT part of the order that doesn't sit right with me. I also feel like there is more pressure on Crawford than there is on Gonzalez, because Gonzalez is being asked to do something he does every year, whereas Crawford will likely be expected to outperform his projections (BP has him at .290/.341/.444 with 44 SB). Not to mention there's a guy named Kevin Youkilis who is a much more patient hitter than Crawford (not to mention right-handed), lurking in the cleanup spot until Gonzalez takes it over.
Now, of course the Cleveland Indians would love to have a problem like "Who to hit 3rd in the lineup, Kevin Youkilis or Carl Crawford" and if this is a problem there really isn't a problem but there is going to be a lot of pressure on the Sox this year, like there is with any team that gets universally predicted to breeze through a grueling professional athletic season. There will be hiccups, there will be slumps. There will be poor pitching performances, there will be blown saves, and there will be costly errors.
That being said, here is my predicted final standings for the 2011 AL East:
Boston 151-11
Tampa 82-80
Toronto 75-87
Baltimore 66-96
New York 25-137
Play Ball.
-Judge
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